Tuesday, November 22, 2011

NFL Power Rankings - Week 11

Not much change at the top of the Rankings this week, but there are some notable games to keep an eye on, especially the Thanksgiving matchups of Green Bay @ Detroit and San Francisco @ Baltimore.

Buffalo @ New York Jets and Chicago @ Oakland headline the Sunday games and the Monday Night game between New York Giants and New Orleans.

1. Green Bay (10-0) LW: 1 - The Packers survived yet another late push to extend their winning streak to 16 games, dating back to Week 16 last year. They're the first defending Super Bowl champions to begin a season 10-0 since the 1998 Broncos, and will be playing an upset minded Detroit on Thanksgiving.
2. San Francisco (9-1) LW: 2 - The 49ers continue to roll, winning their 8th straight game against Arizona, 23-7. Of their last 6 games, 4 will be against division foes with a combined record of 9-21. Division leaders play Thursday night as the 49ers and Ravens match up, Harbaugh against Harbaugh. The 49ers can clinch the NFC West this week with a win and Seattle loss.
3. Pittsburgh (7-3) LW: 3 - The Steelers exit their late bye week with a trip to KC to face a reeling Chiefs team. Of their 6 remaining games, they will play KC, CLE (X2), and STL, all but assuring at least an 11-5 season. The margin between being a #1 and #5 seed is razor thin for the Steelers, who have lost tiebreakers to the Ravens and Texans but hold one over the Patriots.
4. New Orleans (7-3) LW: 4 - The Saints prepare themselves for a Monday Night game with the Giants this week, pitting two of the best QBs in the league so far this year against each other. Of their final six games, New Orleans will face 4 teams still in the playoff race. On the plus side, 3 of those games will be played in the Super Dome, including this Monday.
5. Chicago (7-3) LW: 5 - The prognosis for Bears QB Jay Cutler doesn't sound good, as he's expected to miss 6-8 weeks following surgery on a broken thumb. As it stands, Chicago doesn't have the most difficult path to the playoffs, with just 3 of their final 6 games against teams .500 or better.
6. Houston (7-3) LW: 6 - A lot of people have written off the Texans rather quickly in light of QB Matt Schaub's injury. The Texans have overcome adversity at every turn, starting with Arian Foster's slow start, Mario Williams season ending torn pectoral injury, and Andre Johnson's lingering hamstring issue. Through it all, Houston still has the #1 defense, #2 scoring defense and #2 rushing offense. Add to that a schedule with only two teams over .500, and the Texans should be just fine.
7. New England (7-3) LW: 8 - New England is back on track following their 34-3 dismantling of the Chiefs. Rob Gronkowski is the latest great Belichek draft pick who has 310 yards and 5 TDs over the last three games for the Patriots. Given New England's relatively soft remaining schedule (0 games against teams with records over .500); the road to the Super Bowl could very easily run through New England.
8. Baltimore (7-3) LW: 9 - While some may feel I have Baltimore rated a little low, it's hard to put faith in a team that's lost to the likes of Seattle and Jacksonville. As strange as it sounds, at 7-3, there is a reasonable case to be made that the Ravens have under achieved so far. Following this Thursday's game with SF, the Ravens play 4 straight against teams under .500. If they avoid playing down to their competition, the Ravens have an excellent shot at earning home field advantage in the AFC as well.
9. Detroit (7-3) LW: 10 - The Lions may have been caught off guard by the visiting Panthers, but whatever the reason, they found themselves trailing 24-7 in short order. But the Lions showed their resiliency with yet another double digit 2nd half comeback, winning 49-35. Now comes a potential game of the year candidate, as the 7-3 Lions welcome the 10-0 Packers on Thanksgiving. The game has all the ingredients for a shootout, as the Lions open the week as underdogs (+6).
10. Dallas (6-4) LW: 11 - It's always fun to see how reactionary the media (namely ESPN) is regarding the Cowboys. To begin the season, you would think the Cowboys were headed towards a 4-12 record and that Tony Romo was the worst QB in the NFL. Now, following their recent 3 game winning streak, the Cowboys are being heralded as possible Super Bowl favorites. Now the Cowboys welcome a red hot Miami team for the late afternoon Thanksgiving game.
11. New York Giants (6-4) LW: 7 - Sunday Night's loss to Philadelphia was a damaging blow to a Giants team in the midst of 5 game stretch that featured 4 division leaders. With New Orleans, Green Bay, and Dallas on tap, the Giants are in for an uphill struggle to remain in the playoff hunt.
12. Oakland (6-4) LW: 13 - Following their 27-21 win in Minnesota, the Raiders have won two straight to keep sole possession of first place in the AFC West and face a Bears team that will have QB Caleb Hanie making his first career start next week. A look at the schedule reveals 3 very winnable games and two others that the Raiders should be competitive in. 10 wins isn't out of the question and would force the rest of the AFC West to play near perfect football, but the Raiders will have to develop more consistency to reach that goal.
13. Atlanta (6-4) LW: 15 - The Falcons emerged victorious over Tennessee in a battle of 5-4 playoff contenders this week. The offensive balance the Falcons exhibited is what makes them so dangerous, and their stingy run defense forced the Titans to try winning the game through the air. Up next, Atlanta will host a Christian Ponder-led Vikings team that will likely be without All-Pro Adrian Peterson.
14. Cincinnati (6-4) LW: 12 - Despite losing two straight to the Steelers and Ravens, the Bengals are still holding on to the final wildcard spot, a game ahead of the Broncos, Jets, Bills and Titans. If the Bengals can take care of business against the likes of CLE, STL, and ARI, then winning just one game against PIT, HOU, or BAL would make them a near lock for the playoffs this year.
15. Denver (5-5) LW: 19 - The Tebow situation has overshadowed just how good the Broncos defense has played in recent weeks. Von Miller is a beast and should be the odds on favorite for DRoY. Looking ahead, the Broncos face a desperate Chargers team this week, but also have a possible Peterson-less Minnesota, a Cutler-less Chicago, a slumping Buffalo, and a Cassel-less Chiefs left on the schedule along with New England. The Broncos could realistically go anywhere from 5-1 to 2-4 during this stretch.
16. New York Jets (5-5) LW: 14 - The Jets playoff hopes took a serious blow with Tebow's 20 yard TD scamper. The loss not only drops New York 2 games behind New England (3 counting the tiebreaker), it also sets them behind another possible AFC Wildcard hopeful, Denver. As it stands, Baltimore, Oakland, and Denver hold tiebreakers over New York. A loss this weekend to Buffalo may effectively end the Jets playoff hopes entirely.
17. Tennessee (5-5) LW: 16 - Where last week was a match-up between two playoff hopefuls, this weekend's game with Tampa Bay could be an elimination game. Tampa Bay's margin for error is all but evaporated, while the Titans can ill afford to fall another game behind the 7-3 Texans in the AFC South.
18. Buffalo (5-5) LW: 17 - The one time Cinderella story Bills have now lost 3 straight and are traveling to New York trying to avoid a season sweep by the Jets. Any hopes they have of ending the playoff drought in Buffalo are riding on this week, they can ill afford any hiccups against a schedule littered with WC contenders (NYJ, TEN, SD, DEN).
19. Philadelphia (4-6) LW: 23 - The Eagles kept their playoff hopes on life support with Sunday Night's win over the division leading Giants. Only two games back in the standings, Philadelphia needs a win this weekend against the Patriots to have any hope of returning to the playoffs.
20. Tampa Bay (4-6) LW: 20 - The Bucs last 6 games were about as tough as it gets, with their opponents in those games combining for a 47-13 (.783) record so far this season. That said, they still only won one of those games and are currently on a 4 game losing streak. A 9-7 team may sneak into the playoffs, but it's looking more and more likely that the Bucs must win out to have a shot this year.
21. Seattle (4-6) LW: 24 - Aside from an early Brandon Lloyd TD, the Seahawks were in control for the majority of the game against St. Louis on Sunday. The Seahawks and Pete Carroll are rallying nicely after a slow start, with back to back wins over the Ravens and Rams. Next week the Seahawks host the slumping Redskins as they continue their march back to .500.
22. San Diego (4-6) LW: 18 - The Chargers are looking to end their 5 game losing streak against the team they last won against, Denver. October 9th feels like an eternity for Chargers fans, but if they can turn the corner, they are still just 2 games back from Oakland with 1 game to play against them. That said, the Chargers have 5 of 6 games remaining against teams .500 or better.
23. Miami (3-7) LW: 27 - The Dolphins made a bit of history with their victory against the Bills this week, becoming the first team in NFL history to win three straight games during a season in which they started 0-7. The Dolphins have been downright dominant in their wins over KC, WAS, and BUF, outscoring them 86-20 in that stretch. The way the Dolphins are playing, an upset of the Cowboys doesn't seem as far-fetched as it did a week ago, does it?
24. Cleveland (4-6) LW: 26 - The Browns ended their 3 game losing streak to against the Jaguars this past weekend, and will be looking to play the role of spoiler, as they finish the year with 5 division games. Up first is a trip to Cincinnati.
25. Kansas City (4-6) LW: 21 - Following their MNF loss to New England, the road doesn't get any easier, as Kansas City host the Steelers this week on SNF. CHI, NYJ, GB, OAK, and DEN are also on the schedule, as the Chiefs face opponents at .500 or better the rest of the season.
26. Arizona (3-7) LW: 22 - The Cardinals avoided being shut out in this weekend's trip to San Francisco with a 4th quarter Larry Fitzgerald TD, but there wasn't much more for Arizona to take from this game. The 49ers racked up 431 yards of total offense as they controlled the Time of Possession battle, 44:16 to 15:44.
27. Minnesota (2-8) LW: 25 - Adding insult to injury, the Vikings disappointing season got worse with the Adrian Peterson's high ankle sprain in the 1st quarter of the 27-21 loss to Oakland.
28. Washington (3-7) LW: 28 - Washington had the upset in mind against Dallas, but Graham Gano's missed 52 yard attempt in OT ended that chance. At six games and counting, the Redskins 3-1 start is but a distant memory. One thing is clear, neither John Beck nor Rex Grossman is the answer.
29. Jacksonville (3-7) LW: 29 - The Jaguars have the 3rd ranked defense in total yards and 5th ranked scoring defense. They also have the league's 12th ranked rushing offense despite facing an 8 man box on nearly every snap. The problem has been the Jaguars passing game, inability to sustain drives, and inability to force turnovers. Their defense allows them to stay in games, and could mean the Jags win a game or two down the stretch against playoff teams.
30. Carolina (2-8) LW: 31 - Although the results were the same (both losses), the Panthers offensive outburst against Detroit vaults them ahead of the Rams in this week's rankings. Carolina will try to avoid being the first team to lose to the Colts this year.
31. St. Louis (2-8) LW: 30 - The Rams started quickly, scoring on a Bradford to Lloyd 30 yard TD pass to start the game. The Rams were unable to capitalize on the Seahawks early game mistakes and were trailing 10-7 by halftime. Arizona visits this week, as St. Louis looks to build some momentum going into next year.
32. Indianapolis (0-10) LW: 32 - And here we are, seemingly perfect in their imperfection. The 0-10 Colts are still looking for that first W, this week they have a legitimate chance, hosting the 2-8 Panthers.

If time permits, I might release a Awards Rankings blog tomorrow. Enjoy and comment below.

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